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7 questions facing the sports card industry in 2016
By Ryan Cracknell | Hobby Editor
We heard a lot about time travel and hover boards in 2015. It was, after all, the year when Back to the Future II was set. But the Cubs didn’t win the World Series and our hover boards still have wheels. Predicting the future emerges to be as harsh as ever.
As we spin our calendars and look to the next twelve months ahead, here are some questions about the hobby that will be answered in 2016.
How will things switch now that all four of the major leagues have sports card exclusives?
When Panini takes over off the hook rights to the NFL license in the spring, it will become the last of the major North American sports leagues to go with a single manufacturer. How these exclusives have been approached and received has varied from sport to sport as each manufacturer has their own way of doing things.
Good or bad, exclusives are a part of today’s hobby. It might not always be that way but two thousand sixteen will mark the very first year in the modern hobby era where that’s the case. Will things be that different as far as the types of products or the collecting base? How will it switch the business side of things for hobby shops, breakers, dealers and collectors? Time will tell.
What sorts of innovations will we see?
The hobby is permanently switching. Sometimes we don’t see it so much in the packs and boxes we bust, but the business itself and how we collect does. Look at group violating over the past few years. And the expansion of repackage products. And several other areas of the industry.
In the past duo of years a lot of the innovations seen on cards themselves have been expansions of previous innovations. One would have to go back to the very first memorabilia cards and introduction of super premium products to see a massive shift in the way cards are made. We’ve seen some puny trends. Some potentially big innovations have failed to catch on in a big way. Recall movie cards?
Will we see any game-changers in two thousand sixteen as far as card and product styles go? What would you like to see?
Will NASCAR make a comeback?
It has been a year since Press Pass went out of business. That’s meant a lack of racing cards. The market may not be as big as some of the other sports but that doesn’t mean it needs to be disregarded. Will we see fresh NASCAR cards in 2016? If so, who is going to make them?
Will there be any major switches at any of the card companies?
Just like any industry, there are lots of switches within trading cards every year. In two thousand fifteen we witnessed the number of major/semi-major manufacturers shrink by one (see above). As always — just like other industries — there have been slew of rumors floating around about one manufacturer buying another, some being in trouble and combinations of the two. Sometimes something comes of those rumors. Other times they die for a while.
Will any manufacturers go under in 2016? Will any merge? Maybe someone fresh will emerge. Because those sorts of deals are usually done in private, we likely won’t know for certain until they’re done, no matter what the rumors are.
What will the evolution of digital trading cards look like?
Whether you’re a fan or not, digital trading cards have grown in the past duo of years. Topps’ apps like BUNT and Starlet Wars Card Trader have led to others. Panini has their DUNK app for basketball and Gridiron for football. 2015-16 Upper Deck Tim Horton’s had a digital component to the promotion. Upper Deck has also said they’re working on their own hockey app.
These apps are still youthfull and developing. In the app field, what’s hot today can quickly shrink and fight to maintain its dominance. Look at Angry Birds and Farmville. Will digital trading card apps be a fad or are they here to stay? That’s a question that won’t be answered in 2016, but we can wonder what they’ll look like in the months ahead and if any others will join the mix.
Who will be the breakout starlets and rookies of 2016?
This time last year, Kris Bryant cards were hot. In the summer, they were sexier. Connor McDavid was the same before the embark of the NHL season this past fall. At the NBA draft, a howling youthful Knicks fan got more attention than Kristaps Porzingas. That kid is smiling and the Knicks rookie is one of the top first-year players this year.
And it’s not always rookies who emerge in the hobby. Stephen Curry has entered the elite in the past few months. Josh Donaldson has gone from a fringe starlet to MVP.
Every year there are big rookies and fresh starlets who step out from the shadows. Who will they be in 2016?
Will Jason Day and Jordan Spieth ultimately get some cards?
Jason Day and Jordan Spieth both had big years in 2015. And while they now both have cards courtesy of Sports Illustrated Kids magazine, they’re not fairly the same as traditional golf cards. It has been a duo of years since there has been a major golf release. Perhaps we’ll see it in 2016.
What are you looking forward (or not) as far as the hobby in 2016?
Comments? Questions? Contact Ryan Cracknell on Twitter @tradercracks.
27 Comments
Nascar cards will get made as soon as a deal is made where the card manufacturer can make a profit.
It may take a while given the fees involved, but I expect that in a world where they can still make WNBA card sets that Nascar can manage to do the same. Granted, they only made five hundred of them this year, but still….
Digital cards can and should die out just like pogs did. You can’t bring a digital card to a game to get signed.
At least they presently permit you to transfer them to other people, but eventually people will want to go back
to solid things in the real world again. Digital cards as part of a game of some kind might stay alive longer.
Kris Bryant cards will drop in price simply because that’s the pattern.
You have Bryce Harper cards selling at lower levels for the same card type, and that’s just bimbo.
For Heaven’s sake, they are the same age and Harper has all the same awards as Kris, plus two extra
AS, a SS, and oh yeah, an MVP award. So either Kris is vastly over price or Bryce is under, take your pick.
Now if Kris had won them the World Series instead of them being blanked by the Mets …
Like everything else, digital isn’t for everyone. But several people do love it fairly a lot. They’re not looking for the same thing as physical and like the draw of other parts. It is very different and that’s the point — to be an alternative. Personally, I find the most pleasant one to be Starlet Wars and it has no game affixed to it at all. I’m a regular casual user but love the fact that I can trade and build sets instantly.
Very first off, I indeed appreciate how much dedication and time, as well as the amount of content you bring to Beckett, Ryan. Loves your work with Cardboard Connection, and Beckett is better off with your contributions.
2nd,I wish basic inserts would make a comeback. Fleer Retro shows collectors love for these SP/SSP/1-per box/every other or 3rd/etc. box, and inserts with technology and themes. Jambalaya and Kaboom come to mind, Platinum Portraits from the 90’s,Blue Chip Prospects, etc. These were superb, and they were better pulls than a boring white/gray jersey card (jumbo or not). Collectors don’t want these cards as noted by any look at eBay, especially the photo shoot jersey cards. It’s a shame card companies just flood the market with these, and then say they have added value by numbering them to 50/25/Ten/Five whatever. Just because they’re numbered to one hundred or less make them infrequent when there are literally dozens of sets numbered to twenty five or less. Plus why aren’t there more Predictor cards? They always gave collectors something to look forward to and go after. The SuperTeam cards, and the Topps MVP parallel/predictor cards were both uncommon and joy to pursue to see if you’d win a prize. These cards are sorely missed, IMO. I just wish the card companies would take collectors suggestions, and the survey results from sources like Beckett as suggestions to what the masses of collectors want, which aren’t more and more super high-priced sets like Eminence and Flawless. I mean how many $400+ boxes can they produce? Just look at Eminence. It’s $600-800 per carx on average, and a check of realized prices on eBay display how bad this product is getting killed. But I feel like PaniniAmerica will proceed to kill the market with these, and find the need for a $Ten,000 per pack/box set, accomplish with NO MJ/Lebron autos.
I feel that one question must be…Can the industry get through a company that puts out $6000.00 packs of cards to hobbyists… and…. should a company have total control of two major sports in the trading card business.
As a collector for fifty four years, I feel that the response should ultimately be a resounding no!
Corey Seager is likely to be the overpriced prospect of two thousand sixteen in baseball because of his top prospect status and playing in a big market like LA. Football is likely to be whatever 1st round QB is NOT selected by the Browns. Basketball you are most likely looking at Skal Labissiere just because of his potential.
Panini will run football into the ground like it did with basketball. Will not collect football until it switches. Same boring design on every single set.
The Cold War of the hobby world inbetween Panini and Topps as who will market the highest price tag item that produces grown up tears and wifey fears of regret.
I would like to thank Panini and Topps for just running the hobby back into the 90s and over producing junk again. It just leaves a form agony in my donk that just stops me from getting to my wallet to buy any of this junk coming out.
Sad to see that their are fresh collectors or just naive collectors that believe when Panini and Topps put a price tag of $200, $400, $600, $1000 that they are getting cards worth that much. The value to price this past year on products was the worst I’ve ever seen in my two decades of collecting and it wasn’t because of the rookie classes. It was due to the overproduction of products, auto, and parallels that made nothing seem special or valuable. Why pay for one high-end card of your dearest player when you can get one maybe cheaper from another high-end product. Someone needs to train Panini and Topps about supply and request.
Digital cards appeal to a different generation and mindset. Personally, I would love to see an updated version of etopps come back. Instead of IPOs, just regular packs you can “open” in digital form and have them delivered to you if you so choose.
Exclusivity has never worked for long in business. It does not keep the customers glad. To liken this to reality, imagine if there was only one company that wielded all the restaurants, one company that made all your clothes, or one company that wielded all the phone networks. Lack of choice would get pretty old indeed rapid. Ma Bell was cracked up for a reason. I indeed like this hobby, and it agonies me to see it fighting itself to stir downward. Competition drives innovation.
I’ve been a sports card collector since one thousand nine hundred fifty seven and have been on the business side since 1982. Albeit I think of myself as a creative person, twenty years ago I did not immagine cards would be as amazing as they are today. While I can not predict the future, I am certain the manufacturers will proceed to improve their products and give customers more of what they want. Customers speak with their wallet, and that is a language the manufactures understand and to which they react.
Competition is good. I wish we had four or more manufacturers for each sport, but the leagues have determined that is not best for financial well-being. Competition will proceed in two thousand sixteen because each exclusively manufactured league product will be contesting for your entertainment dollar. MLB Baseball and NBA Basketball went special in 2009. Their products are amazing with both Topps MLB products and Panini NBA products providing customers quality and diversification in their many products.
90% of my NFL customers buy both Topps products and Panini products. While ALL OF US will miss Topps NFL products, Panini America has already embarked working to pack that two thousand sixteen NFL void and win the approval of Topps NFL collectors. As it has done with NBA products, I expect superb things from Panini America for NFL products in the instantaneous future.
While there are many good card shops, internet retailers and group breakers, some are not. Those which are not place doubt in the minds of our customers. While free and open competition is good, unregulated business practices are bad for the customer and product producer. The consumer needs to know whether they buy their hobby products at a brick and mortar shop in Texas or Alaska, group breaker, internet retailer or at the manufacturer’s store, the consumer will receive the same quality service and value for their entertainment dollar.
I believe two thousand sixteen will be the hobby’s best and most entertaining year ever!
While I have to agree exclusives have been approached differently from sport to sport, I don’t agree that they’ve been received differently. I’ve never heard a collector or fan say that an sensational license was a good thing.
I’ve also got to disagree with Richard on digital cards – I don’t think digital cards will go away. It’s the world we live in. It’s true for books, movies and other things – it makes sense cards would gravitate toward that. Even tho’ I didn’t totally understand it at very first, I think they’ll be around.
I don’t collect digital sports cards, but I did download the Starlet Wars Topps app. And now I’m semi-addicted. I don’t spend money on it (with one exception), but it’s joy. It’s more like a game to me, however, than actually collecting.
I can see one company embarking to be Monopoly Panini. dont get me wrong but it not joy that there is only one company making football cards and basketball cards. Why cant Panini put some Micheal Jordan cards in there product? Just an idea……
I am hopeful that Topps Leaves football with a greatest hits collection- sorta like the end of a good fireworks show- i cannot believe that there will not be another Topps NFL set- so I would like to see something that puts a bow on a good run- maybe a superb Super Cup moments set? since some of the Super Cup cards of the 1970’s are kind of strange looking- – one thing is for sure- things are never going to be the same in football cards without that link to the past….
One trend I have seen and liked are smaller finish sets in baseball. For those of us who do collect sets (not many left I suppose) it is much more joy and lighter to find one hundred or two hundred fifty cards rather than six hundred to 750. Also, I love subset inserts that are usually of the top players and have interesting characteristics; plain photo on paper stock is boring! The industry should proceed to suggest these and expand on multitude of themes rather than color parallels.
Paul, Panini cannot put MJ cards in their products because he has an off the hook with UD. Exclusivity is horrible for the hobby, Panini losing hockey has spread out UD’s products and limited the diversity. I am astonished at how nobody has mentioned the deplorable state of redemptions? When I pull one now, I almost see it as a futile decoy card . Topps Dynasty having redemptions was a shock, oops then again its Topps so I digress. I for one have vowed to stop buying paraffin wax, as every single product by the case is a losing proposition and not just by $100 or so, its big on most. The only person that can hurt the companies is us consumers who stick to not buying.
I have got to respectably disagree with Charlie D. The photography in Panini products is fair at best, compared to Upper Deck and Topps products. With average photography they have “exposed” the hobby to $6000.00 packs of cards with themes( precious metals) that have nothing to do with the sport. Panini wants to control ALL major sports….lets call it what it is! Panini even filters all comments that are made regarding their products…only the FEW positive ones make their website….. and I have spoken to ems of thousands of “collectors” in the last decade- and while many of them were primarily high on Panini at very first, they have soured with their poor customer service- and overproduction of high dollar products. I DO NOT see the Hobby heading in a positive direction for 2016.
As a collector of 9.8 MILLION cards, I have already thrown the towel in for two thousand sixteen football( Panini managed) and any other garbage high dollar Target product they shove through the retail garments. I may only spend about $600.00 per month on my private collection, but I can promise you with Panini in control it will be considerably less for 2016!
I’m with David D. collecting since 72
I can tell you exactly what the baseball monopoly has meant to me: after an infuriating exchange with the Topps social media rep on Twitter, I resolved to abandon buying fresh baseball card product. When it’s evident that the monopoly company doesn’t actually care about addressing the concerns of the customer, the customer can either walk away or proceed to be taken for granted.
Thanks to my exchange with Topps, baseball card collecting lost all its joy. I’ve been collecting for over thirty years, sticking to the hobby through all the trials and tribulations since the mid ’80s. Topps cannot afford to lose collectors like me, but they managed to do so thanks to the exceeding tone-deaf and arrogant responses I got when attempting to raise issues with their product.
Life is too brief to have a hobby that no longer makes you blessed.
I have talked to people at numerous shops who believe that when Panini gets the off the hook football cards will largely vanish.
Panini has ruined products such legacy products as Crown Royale and made even a product like Contenders hit and most likely miss at best – and their regular products suffer from too much “sameness” and too many poor hits such as RPS junk “memorabilia. And that is even before they have an special.
The good news is that I’ll save a lot of money on football boxes next year and just pursue individual cards.
For those worried about the long term of the hobby, just recall that there have been periods of time
where no one made cards and then they returned. I expect this will repeat.
If Panini does manage to kill the market because people leave in frustration, they will either learn or
they will bail. If they bail, the sports franchises will not leave money on the table and will permit someone
else to pick up the baton. They might even create their own card companies to do it, but I think they would
rather someone else take the risks and cash the checks.
From the prices I’ve seen the cards getting, there are a entire lot more losers than winners on this Eminence stuff. There has been one giant winner and that was the fellow who sold an Andrew Wiggens card for $20K.
Which is amazing considering a near identical card sold for $2300.
There is a significant problem tho’ in that so many cards have sold for just a fraction of their cost.
That some of the cards have neither a signature or patch, just a chunk of silver and are #’d low tells me they
indeed don’t give a damn or at least are not thinking.
Someone gets a card that effectively cost them $600+ and it sells for $40 is just not going to be glad and
the people that are spending the $6K a pack are the ones that the company can least afford to lose.
Here’s a hint Panini. Success comes not from selling a product at $6000/pack but rather selling a product
that consistently sells for more after the initial release. When you do that, you can leisurely increase the
quantity made and over the long term make a hell of a lot more money.
Every time you sell a product that quickly drops in retail price you should consider that as a sign you are doing something wrong. Some things are obviously not under your control, like a strike or lock out or just a truly, truly bad rookie crop (with decent design the veteran autograph cards will offset this), but when people are
telling you what you are doing wrong and choose not to listen …. boom.
Topps Football products will be missed by ALL OF US. When the NBA Basketball special went to Panini America (they took over the old Donruss Company in 2009), I thought my business would be severely affected. San Antonio, the home of the Tim Duncan era 5-Time NBA Champ Spurs, was primarily a NBA Basketball collecting city. Up until that time, Upper Deck and Topps were the only producers of NBA Basketball and Donruss (now to be Panini America) had no practice in producing NBA Basketball.
Since taking over the special for NBA Basketball, I have witnessed significant improvements in Panini America NBA products every year. The true measure of Panini America’s success in providing customers what they want is sales. My NBA sales have more than doubled from that of the Pre-exclusive NBA days. And, as far as innovation is worried in a mid-priced product, my customer’s voted 2014-15 Select Basketball as “The Product of The Year” with their wallets. I sold over six hundred boxes of the vastly improved 2014-15 Select Basketball to customers in my store.
While ALL of US will miss Topps Football products, it is not “The End of The World” for NFL Football collectors. Panini America is not fresh to the NFL Football business. In my store, about 65% of my current NFL sales are Panini America products. Panini America is aware they must proceed to work hard to win over those who are angry about the NFL sensational and those who just plain choose Topps NFL products. While it may not be the same as old Topps products, Panini America will proceed to produce NFL products worthy of your patronage.
thank the lord that Upper Deck still produces cards that entices me to buy them!
cant say the same for topps or panini and btw you two, use two thousand sixteen to clear my redemption list will ya! Ater all it does date back to 2012!!
i am looking foward to two thousand sixteen as the year nascar cards come back. I truly wish it would emcompass all racing professional series but we need to get the thickest back very first. its been a long year without a product. i have used this time to attempt and accomplish some of my master sets and hard to find nickname autographs. however some of my hobby funds have gone to die cast but i have most of the ones i need so lets bring back the cards
My one question would be: how does one company afford so many sensational league deals, and pump out so much garbage, and remain a profitable business, while so many others have fallen over?
I like topps and upper deck products way better then panini. They should be back in all sports like they use to be. Panini does have the appea l to me like topps or upper deck. I think topps always held a strong value but upper deck suggest some of the coolest inserts that as a collector you liked from chunks of shoe laces or sneakers to jordan inserts and more. Topps was always the best one with the most rookies.
You can see customs on eBay of what collectors want. Deep team cards of players never on a card or in sets they could have been in. So far this year in football panini has produced more historical packers than current and zero fresh players other than draft picks. How many Rodgers cards do I need? 1. It’s out of control.
I’ve been around this “hobby” for some time and have personally been involved in many different aspects of the industry. I can tell you this with no uncertainty. The future of this industry has less to do with the manufacture and has more to do with the industries capability to bring mass appeal to a newer junior investor /collector. Contrary to popular belief, manufactures are managed by the consumer and not the other way around. In business the consumer always leads the manufacturer as to what products they make and how they should be priced. Any shift we’ve seen over the past eight years is directly linked to what the consumer wants. This is confirmed by industry sales numbers, which are higher than ever before.
As much as the older more seasoned collector may not approve, this is what the majority have asked for. Higher priced more sensational products. Exclusivity does not only come from limited production but can also come from the ordinary fact that only a few can afford it. This is why case breakers have exploded onto the scene and are becoming more and more popular. Digital cards are just an extension of this paradigm and again, older collectors may think they’re ditzy but industry numbers prove otherwise.
With all that being said, the industry is still not out of the forest. Like I had previously mentioned, the future of this industry is fully dependent on whether or not they can bring mass appeal to the fresh collector. No industry can sustain by cannibalizing itself. This often happens because they lack capability to build up mass appeal or the capability to bring on fresh consumers. In order to sustain they simply reinvent and switch things in hopes to appeal to the current consumer base. Right now this is where the industry is fighting. However they have seen a resurgence of past collectors from the 80’s and 90’s they still have not found a way to break into the mainstream sports market. That market is gigantic and is where all future potential lies. The industry of hobbyists and collectors, up until now has been a niche market with appeal to very few. As long as it stays that way the industry is dead in the water. Both Panini and Topps are well aware the need to switch this.
The fantasy e-sports industry has shed light on the amount of sports fans out there entirely willing to spend money on more than clothing and live events. Fantasy sports have taken off because until now, outside of going to or watching a game, there was nothing an avid sports fan could do to participate in or be part of what they loved most. Not only is it a fresh outlet for sports fans, but a venue that appeals to a junior newer generation.
When and if the sports collectors industry can get the attention of the avid sports fan things will rapidly switch in ways we would have never imagined. I personally think they are on the right track but that’s a discussion for a different time……
